Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x27d8…3769 other 21 markets active 2d ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$1
other 20% +$2
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +36.1% +23.1% 100% 100% +23.2%
≤30d 2 +36.1% +23.1% 100% 100% +23.2%
≤90d 6 +19.4% +8.0% 83% 83% +7.2%
all 15 +7.9% -2.4% 80% 33% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 33% -9.2%
10% -11.8% 33% -17.9%
15% -20.3% 13% -25.8%
20% -28.1% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage167d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 May 11 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 10 $1 $0 +23%
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to Score May 08 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 12? Jan 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 12? Jan 12 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 7? Jan 07 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 6? Jan 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 5? Jan 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 2, 2026? Jan 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 01 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 37d
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 154d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 155d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $99 155d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 155d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 7? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 160d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 160d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 161d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 162d
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 2, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 166d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $50 166d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $50 167d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $50 168d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.83 · official $10.83 (match) · 37 history records