Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x27d9…9ba7 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$76 (+8%) realized +$111 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%27W / 27L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$12
14 days+$179
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$6
other 35% +$88
crypto 30% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.2% -20.6% 43% 43% -6.5%
≤30d 54 +7.4% -2.8% 50% 48% +3.9%
≤90d 54 +7.4% -2.8% 50% 48% +3.9%
all 54 +7.4% -2.8% 50% 48% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 48% +3.9%
10% -12.1% 48% -6.0%
15% -20.6% 46% -15.1%
20% -28.4% 39% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$111
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses27 / 27
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage16d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 84¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $50 +$20 +40%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$77 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$26 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$20 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$9 +181%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$120 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +152%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $100 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 71¢ $50 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 67¢ $50 25h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 4d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 4d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $79 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 8d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 14d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $15 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.62 · official $164.62 (match) · 106 history records