Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27d9…2d4f crypto 62 markets active 19h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-3%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$107
other 3% −$11
sports 1% −$1
world 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -10.0% -18.6% 25% 23% -36.8%
≤30d 61 -10.0% -18.6% 25% 23% -36.8%
≤90d 61 -10.0% -18.6% 25% 23% -36.8%
all 61 -10.0% -18.6% 25% 23% -36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 23% -36.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 20% -42.9%
15% -33.5% 16% -48.4%
20% -40.0% 15% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage6d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $7 +$2 +25%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$14 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $62 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $54 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$11 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$6 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$13 +1226%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +170%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -83%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$10 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $45 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$5 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$20 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 40h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 40h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 44¢ $9 40h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 40h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 40h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 41h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.64 (match) · 172 history records