Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27da…d24a other 1002 markets active 0h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$508 (-3%) realized −$494 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate63%618W / 360L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$88
14 days−$129
30 days−$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$54
other 24% −$297
world 8% −$61
politics 6% −$39
sports 4% −$30
culture 4% −$8
tech 2% +$1
weather 1% −$3
economics 1% −$27
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -7.7% -16.5% 38% 13% -14.5%
≤30d 213 -23.1% -30.4% 48% 9% -18.0%
≤90d 444 -17.9% -25.7% 61% 14% -16.5%
all 978 -15.5% -23.6% 63% 22% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 22% -12.4%
10% -30.9% 17% -20.8%
15% -37.6% 13% -28.4%
20% -43.7% 10% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$494
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses618 / 360
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)978 / 1002
History coverage254d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 978 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? No 74¢ 76¢ $30 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? No 12¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 83¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+39%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 99¢ 10¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-90%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%? No 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-95%)
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? Yes 22¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 235 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $396 −$21 -5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Jun 25 $46 −$2 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $7 $0 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 25 $8 −$1 -17%
Will Dan Barker win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 25 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 $0 +3%
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026? Jun 25 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 25 $12 −$2 -14%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -79%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 25 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31? Jun 25 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Jun 25 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Jun 25 $11 −$2 -17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 25 $1 +$6 +572%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 24 $3 $0 -14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 24 $14 −$2 -15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 24 $7 $0 -6%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $52 −$4 -8%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $52 +$2 +3%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $53 +$9 +17%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $124 −$6 -5%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $17 −$5 -33%
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 23 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $15 −$7 -45%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 23 $94 −$2 -2%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 23 $5 $0 -4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $34 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 22 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 $0 +12%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 21 $13 −$4 -26%
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$2 -53%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 21 $42 −$2 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Jun 21 $46 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 21 $34 −$13 -37%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $55 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY No 12¢ $3 25m
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $4 36m
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $26 36m
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY No 12¢ $0 59m
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY No 12¢ $3 59m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $26 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 88¢ $88 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 88¢ $88 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL Yes 85¢ $34 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $34 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 3¢ $1 3h
Will Dan Barker win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 3h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? SELL No 15¢ $7 3h
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY No 16¢ $8 4h
Will Dan Barker win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5h
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 6h
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 6h
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.85 · official $77.16 · 2035 history records