Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:14:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27de…a5c9 other 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%26W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$13
14 days−$27
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$20
other 27% −$30
sports 15% −$17
crypto 9% +$7
culture 5% −$4
world 5% −$5
economics 4% −$8
finance 3% +$3
tech 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 81 -0.5% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 156 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 174 -0.4% -9.8% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses26 / 148
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage103d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $40 −$1 -1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $111 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $156 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 17 $106 $0 +0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $241 −$2 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $438 −$2 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $146 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $123 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $22 $0 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $65 −$2 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $222 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $147 −$4 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $250 −$2 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $172 −$3 -2%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $178 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 06 $64 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 05 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 04 $46 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $65 +$5 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $106 −$3 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $44 57m
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $40 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $40 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 14h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 92¢ $49 14h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 95¢ $51 20h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $59 21h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $58 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $60 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $60 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 43h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $51 44h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $49 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $66 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $66 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $52 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.22 · official $44.22 (match) · 726 history records