Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27e1…508b world 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$46,280 (-48%) realized +$16,483 · open −$62,763
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$9,639per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$16,514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% −$46,439
other 1% +$190
crypto 1% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +6.3% -3.9% 67% 67% +37.5%
≤90d 5 +10.6% +0.0% 80% 60% +36.8%
all 5 +10.6% +0.0% 80% 60% +36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.0% 60% +36.8%
10% ← realistic here -9.5% 60% +23.7%
15% -18.3% 40% +11.8%
20% -26.3% 20% +0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
18.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,141 vs −$20 · ×207.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×828.27 per $1 lost it wins $828.27
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$1,301
Realized+$16,483
Unrealized−$62,763
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage44d
Avg bet$9,639
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $500 $718 +$218 (+44%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 20¢ 0¢ $44,762 $329 −$44,434 (-99%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $201 $113 −$88 (-44%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 0¢ $18,501 $49 −$18,451 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $22,038 +$8,901 +40%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $21 −$20 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 28 $9,736 +$7,633 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 14 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 13 $508 +$26 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $101 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1,000 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1,000 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1,000 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $300 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $2,700 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $81 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $21 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1,883 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4,690 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $2,300 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1,363 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $16 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1,000 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $2,000 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $514 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $13,050 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2,610 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1,740 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2,610 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1,000 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2,000 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1,000 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1,000 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,300.76 · official $1,300.76 (match) · 207 history records