Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
27 0x27e5…fb20 finance 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,019 (-4%) realized −$6,569 · open +$1,550
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate75%33W / 11L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,089per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$37,021now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 86% −$4,361
other 12% +$491
politics 1% +$102
economics 1% −$1,346
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 17 -12.1% -20.5% 76% 12% -27.8%
all 44 -8.4% -17.1% 75% 20% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 20% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 9% -23.6%
15% -32.3% 5% -30.9%
20% -38.9% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$2,839) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$1,216 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$37,021
Realized−$6,569
Unrealized+$1,550
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses33 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions24
Markets (closed)44 / 68
History coverage284d
Avg bet$2,089
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? No 81¢ 88¢ $17,061 $18,743 +$1,682 (+10%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? No 80¢ 76¢ $10,025 $9,513 −$512 (-5%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $3,769 $4,034 +$266 (+7%)
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,781 $1,785 +$3 (+0%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? No 92¢ 95¢ $593 $609 +$17 (+3%)
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $492 $497 +$5 (+1%)
Will GBP/USD hit 1.60 (High) in 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $383 $401 +$19 (+5%)
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $336 $368 +$32 (+9%)
Will Morgan Stanley fail by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $240 $243 +$2 (+1%)
Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $232 $233 +$1 (+0%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? No 93¢ 96¢ $147 $151 +$5 (+3%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? No 90¢ 97¢ $83 $88 +$6 (+7%)
Will US Bank fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will Citigroup fail by end of 2026? No 87¢ 96¢ $44 $48 +$5 (+11%)
Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026? No 76¢ 96¢ $26 $32 +$7 (+26%)
Will Bank of America fail by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will RBC fail by end of 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+12%)
Will BNY fail by end of 2026? No 83¢ 93¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+12%)
Will Bank of America fail by end of 2026? No 86¢ 93¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+9%)
Will GBP/USD hit 1.10 (Low) in 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 89¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will GBP/USD hit 1.70 (High) in 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will GBP/USD hit 1.50 (High) in 2026? No 65¢ 76¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027? May 18 $3,233 −$3,233 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.00% (LOW) in April? May 02 $167 +$11 +6%
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.50% (HIGH) in April? May 02 $329 +$17 +5%
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.60% (HIGH) in April? May 02 $361 +$16 +4%
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? Apr 02 $1,533 +$44 +3%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%? Apr 01 $1,346 −$1,346 -100%
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31? Apr 01 $8,276 −$8,276 -100%
Another US bank failure by March 31? Apr 01 $13 +$4 +32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 01 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $4,291 −$194 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Apr 01 $491 +$20 +4%
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.6% by March 31? Apr 01 $6,249 +$377 +6%
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.8% by March 31? Apr 01 $4,671 +$305 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $2,839 +$161 +6%
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 5.0% by March 31? Apr 01 $5,667 +$188 +3%
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31? Apr 01 $12,366 +$1,142 +9%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $890 +$105 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Mar 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March? Mar 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027? Mar 07 $532 +$228 +43%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Mar 07 $64 +$16 +25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of June? Mar 07 $398 +$57 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March? Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? Mar 04 $756 −$173 -23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of June? Mar 03 $126 +$4 +3%
Another US bank failure by February 28? Mar 03 $2,889 +$111 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 01 $66 +$10 +15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 01 $69 −$14 -21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 01 $412 −$68 -16%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $2,513 +$141 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$50 in February? Feb 28 $356 +$4 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of February? Feb 28 $450 +$50 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of February? Feb 28 $531 +$15 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of February? Feb 28 $1,250 +$38 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of February? Feb 25 $283 +$24 +8%
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? Jan 31 $166 +$10 +6%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025? Dec 31 $2,390 +$25 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025? Dec 31 $9,072 +$328 +4%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025? Dec 31 $659 +$9 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Dec 31 $23,914 +$3,148 +13%
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on Dec Dec 20 $52 −$9 -18%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 08 $1,552 +$102 +7%
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1325.00 on Dec Nov 05 $7 $0 +3%
Will UP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 20 Nov 02 $1 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $80 1h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $132 1h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $23 1h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $30 1h
Will Citigroup fail by end of 2026? BUY No 87¢ $44 3h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $299 17h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $92 2d
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $494 3d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $4 3d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $71 3d
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $298 3d
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 3d
Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $792 3d
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $492 6d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $10 6d
Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $199 6d
Will US Bank fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $72 6d
Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $70 6d
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3 8d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $60 8d
Will Morgan Stanley fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $240 9d
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? BUY No 87¢ $127 11d
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3 14d
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3 14d
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 14d
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,020.67 · official $37,020.04 (match) · 860 history records