Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:32:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
27 0x27e7…d5bb other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% $0
economics 19% $0
other 13% −$6
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 5 -7.7% -16.5% 40% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 0% -11.7%
10% -24.5% 0% -20.1%
15% -31.8% 0% -27.8%
20% -38.5% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage243d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 07 $15 −$6 -39%
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025? Dec 04 $19 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 21 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 3h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 97¢ $15 2d
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 165d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $15 186d
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $19 199d
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 212d
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $19 223d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $49 243d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $49 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records