Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
27 0x27ea…863d sports 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,833 (-7%) realized −$4,939 · open +$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%58W / 100L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Fees−$1,165est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$7,247
other 1% −$497
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -16.0% -24.0% 37% 36% -16.0%
≤30d 158 -15.9% -23.9% 37% 35% -20.9%
≤90d 158 -15.9% -23.9% 37% 35% -20.9%
all 158 -15.9% -23.9% 37% 35% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 35% -20.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 34% -28.5%
15% -37.9% 32% -35.4%
20% -44.0% 28% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$521) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$446 vs −$337 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1,266
Realized−$4,939
Unrealized+$106
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses58 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$1,165
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 160
History coverage26d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 71¢ 79¢ $890 $987 +$97 (+11%)
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner the bug 45¢ 46¢ $270 $279 +$9 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $680 +$319 +47%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $358 −$130 -36%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $48 −$38 -79%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 26 $218 +$255 +117%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $357 −$357 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $497 +$42 +8%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $251 +$791 +315%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $270 −$95 -35%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 26 $422 +$591 +140%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 26 $470 −$467 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 25 $875 −$875 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $867 −$521 -60%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $320 +$679 +212%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $483 −$193 -40%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $241 −$241 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $320 +$698 +218%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $550 −$550 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $501 +$116 +23%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $651 −$248 -38%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $340 +$659 +194%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $113 −$32 -29%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $21 +$33 +157%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $750 −$750 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $540 −$540 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $120 −$120 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $716 +$353 +49%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $542 +$194 +36%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $820 −$820 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 24 $730 −$730 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $234 +$366 +156%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $216 −$216 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $225 −$225 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $1,460 +$540 +37%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $257 +$343 +134%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $464 −$77 -17%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $568 −$568 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $294 +$190 +65%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $380 −$380 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $363 +$876 +241%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $687 −$378 -55%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $701 +$411 +59%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $282 −$282 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $1,462 −$633 -43%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 72¢ $180 57m
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 45¢ $270 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 71¢ $710 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ SELL MIBR Academy 100¢ $999 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner SELL the bug 15¢ $120 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY the bug 20¢ $16 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY the bug 20¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY the bug 20¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY the bug 20¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY the bug 20¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY the bug 20¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY the bug 20¢ $22 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY the bug 20¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY the bug 20¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY the bug 20¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY the bug 40¢ $203 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner SELL 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 41¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner SELL 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 41¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner SELL 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 41¢ $97 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 36¢ $91 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 36¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,266.03 · official $1,186.83 · 1094 history records