Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
27 0x27ee…b517 sports 221 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,820 (-8%) realized −$2,921 · open +$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%94W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$513est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days−$643
14 days−$1,058
30 days−$6,722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$2,094
other 8% −$969
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 85 -38.4% -44.3% 32% 32% -46.7%
≤90d 219 -14.7% -22.8% 43% 43% -17.5%
all 219 -14.7% -22.8% 43% 43% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 43% -17.5%
10% -30.2% 42% -25.4%
15% -36.9% 41% -32.6%
20% -43.1% 37% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$147 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$501
Realized−$2,921
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses94 / 125
Est. fees paid−$513
Open positions2
Markets (closed)219 / 221
History coverage85d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 66¢ 100¢ $200 $303 +$103 (+52%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 47¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $298 −$295 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $73 −$72 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $78 −$76 -98%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $202 −$200 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 160.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $203 +$195 +96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $202 −$200 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $193 −$190 -99%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $305 −$300 -98%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $204 +$421 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 31 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) May 31 $202 +$100 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 31 $202 +$88 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $203 +$175 +86%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $101 +$53 +52%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $203 +$161 +79%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $203 +$175 +86%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $203 −$200 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 30 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $31 +$85 +276%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn May 30 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-04-04? May 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5 May 30 $203 −$203 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 May 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 May 30 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 30 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 30 $199 −$199 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5 May 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) May 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 171.5 May 30 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-23? May 30 $203 −$203 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5 May 30 $203 −$203 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5 May 30 $203 −$203 -100%
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5 May 30 $203 −$203 -100%
Manresa vs. Real Madrid May 30 $303 −$303 -100%
LG Sakers vs. KCC Egis May 30 $204 −$204 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx May 30 $203 −$203 -100%
Ningbo Rockets vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin May 30 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 30 $252 −$252 -100%
Nagasaki Velca vs. Ryukyu Golden Kings May 30 $162 −$162 -100%
Xinjiang Flying Tigers vs. Nanjing Monkey King May 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Beijing Ducks vs. Qingdao Eagles May 30 $170 −$170 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 30 $304 −$304 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5 May 30 $304 −$304 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 30 $304 −$304 -100%
Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 30 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $203 13m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $202 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 44h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $298 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $73 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $78 6d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Zhejiang Lions 24¢ $205 12d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs BUY ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 63¢ $202 13d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 160.5 BUY Over 4¢ $10 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $202 13d
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $203 13d
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $193 14d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Shanghai Sharks 48¢ $305 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 17d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 91¢ $303 17d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $202 17d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $202 17d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Shanghai Sharks 32¢ $204 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $203 17d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 53¢ $203 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 17d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 17d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl BUY G2 NORD 55¢ $203 17d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn BUY FC Bayern Munchen 46¢ $102 18d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 26¢ $31 18d
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 42¢ $168 18d
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $501.15 · official $501.15 (match) · 376 history records