Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:04:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
27 0x27ef…81ba crypto 479 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate77%357W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$54
14 days−$62
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$116
other 12% −$90
sports 10% −$8
economics 1% −$45
politics 0% −$31
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -9.1% -17.8% 27% 7% -16.2%
≤30d 59 -6.6% -15.5% 44% 36% -21.9%
≤90d 105 -2.6% -11.9% 65% 30% -17.8%
all 461 -0.3% -9.8% 77% 28% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 28% -10.9%
10% -18.4% 15% -19.4%
15% -26.3% 10% -27.2%
20% -33.5% 7% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses357 / 104
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)461 / 479
History coverage162d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 461 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $91 $100 +$9 (+10%)
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Under 89¢ 100¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Under 96¢ 100¢ $43 $44 +$2 (+4%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 100¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+6%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $21 $30 +$9 (+41%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $8 $14 +$7 (+92%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $95 +$5 +5%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $94 +$6 +7%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $100 −$9 -8%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $51 −$35 -69%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $103 −$19 -19%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $162 −$13 -8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $103 −$3 -3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 +$28 +550%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $26 −$5 -20%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +216%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +158%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$5 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +31%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: China PR (-2.5) Jun 09 $5 $0 +10%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 09 $5 +$2 +31%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 09 $1 +$1 +62%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 08 $5 +$3 +50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 +34%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 +46%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 +36%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $10 −$7 -73%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 +31%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +79%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +73%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 +24%
Spread: Gibraltar (-2.5) Jun 06 $7 −$6 -88%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5) Jun 06 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +45%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $30 −$16 -54%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $8 +$1 +18%
Exact Score: Singapore 1 - 2 China PR? Jun 05 $1 +$5 +468%
Exact Score: Singapore 0 - 0 China PR? Jun 05 $21 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 93¢ $33 28m
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 96¢ $43 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 89¢ $50 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $4 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $4 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $57 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 7h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $95 7h
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 97¢ $97 7h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $91 7h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $94 17h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 72¢ $38 17h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 93¢ $100 17h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 19h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $38 19h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $148 19h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Engla BUY 4¢ $2 30h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 42h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $48 43h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $52 43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 45h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on BUY 21¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $78 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? AND Exact Score: United States 0 BUY 2¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Cz BUY 4¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.53 · official $420.53 (match) · 1819 history records