Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27ef…22f9 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$78 (-11%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%5W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$104
14 days−$87
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$13
sports 26% −$99
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-51.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -49.2% -54.0% 21% 14% -33.8%
≤30d 21 -46.1% -51.2% 24% 19% -20.9%
≤90d 21 -46.1% -51.2% 24% 19% -20.9%
all 21 -46.1% -51.2% 24% 19% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.2% 19% -20.9%
10% -55.9% 19% -28.5%
15% -60.1% 14% -35.4%
20% -64.0% 14% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage11d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $41 +$13 +32%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $160 +$1 +0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $30 +$18 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $64 −$63 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $32 −$17 -51%
Human moon landing in 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -13%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $32 −$31 -98%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $12 −$1 -9%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $96 +$66 +69%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $178 −$30 -17%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $2 +$2 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 53¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $41 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $120 20h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $48 20h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $7 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $6 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $5 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Steve Garcia 40¢ $15 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $2 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $3 5d
Human moon landing in 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $5 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $10 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $52 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $9 6d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 27¢ $7 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $18 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 6d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records