Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x27f0…c8b6 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$17 (+26%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$3
sports 42% +$20
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +44.4% +30.6% 20% 20% +50.9%
≤30d 10 +44.4% +30.6% 20% 20% +50.9%
≤90d 10 +44.4% +30.6% 20% 20% +50.9%
all 10 +44.4% +30.6% 20% 20% +50.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.6% 20% +50.9%
10% +18.1% 20% +36.5%
15% +6.7% 20% +23.3%
20% -3.7% 20% +11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$3 · ×7.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$30 +982%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$8 +262%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $26 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 45h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 45h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.15 · official $36.15 (match) · 17 history records