Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:54:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27f0…051f other 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,815 (-11%) realized −$1,815 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate32%21W / 44L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$19
14 days−$150
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$419
sports 27% −$363
politics 7% −$39
tech 6% −$709
crypto 1% −$142
economics 0% −$75
culture 0% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-51.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.5% -8.1% 70% 60% -6.9%
≤30d 18 -13.0% -21.2% 61% 44% -20.8%
≤90d 18 -13.0% -21.2% 61% 44% -20.8%
all 65 -45.9% -51.0% 32% 17% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.0% 17% -19.3%
10% -55.7% 11% -27.0%
15% -60.0% 9% -34.1%
20% -63.9% 5% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -59% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$60 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,815
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses21 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage236d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$51 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $100 −$41 -41%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$17 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 19 $28 −$27 -96%
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 19 $22 −$19 -88%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Mar 09 $259 −$8 -3%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 20 $23 −$8 -37%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting? Jan 14 $23 −$9 -39%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 06 $153 −$4 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 05 $412 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 05 $703 −$45 -6%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Dec 08 $87 $0 -0%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Dec 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 03 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 03 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 02 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 01 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 28 $115 −$114 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 27 $65 −$65 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Nov 27 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 26 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 26 $234 −$234 -100%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $4 −$4 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $15 −$11 -74%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Nov 22 $18 −$4 -20%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 20 $251 −$142 -57%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 20 $71 −$54 -75%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Nov 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 87¢ $98 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 51¢ $38 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 53¢ $22 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 5d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 90¢ $100 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $50 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 10d
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 95d
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 95d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No 24¢ $251 105d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No 25¢ $259 112d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 146d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 146d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 146d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 708 history records