Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27f0…c03d other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$226 (-47%) realized −$225 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$74
sports 37% −$162
crypto 13% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-56.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -52.4% -56.9% 20% 20% -61.1%
≤30d 10 -52.4% -56.9% 20% 20% -61.1%
≤90d 10 -52.4% -56.9% 20% 20% -61.1%
all 10 -52.4% -56.9% 20% 20% -61.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.9% 20% -61.1%
10% -61.1% 20% -64.9%
15% -64.8% 20% -68.3%
20% -68.3% 20% -71.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$38 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$225
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $61 $61 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $38 +$24 +64%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $18 −$2 -12%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $16 −$11 -69%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $78 −$76 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 +$45 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $62 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $16 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $16 9h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $78 10h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $18 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $38 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $50 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $94 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $49 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.88 · official $60.88 (match) · 20 history records