Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

27 0x27f4…7763 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$62 (-1%) realized +$443 · open −$505

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%8W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$323per market

Trades / day17.8pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit31%portable

Net worth$2,741now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-8.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+1.4%	-8.3%	62%	62%	-12.9%
≤30d	13	+1.4%	-8.3%	62%	62%	-12.9%
≤90d	13	+1.4%	-8.3%	62%	62%	-12.9%
all	13	+1.4%	-8.3%	62%	62%	-12.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.3%	62%	-12.9%
10%	-17.1%	54%	-21.2%
15%	-25.1%	54%	-28.8%
20%	-32.4%	38%	-35.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +27% → late -20% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$177 vs −$320 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.88 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$2,741

Realized+$443

Unrealized−$505

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses8 / 5

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions13

Markets (closed)13 / 26

History coverage2d

Avg bet$323

Trades / day17.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 13 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	82¢	68¢	$2,094	$1,739	−$355 (-17%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	71¢	72¢	$181	$183	+$1 (+1%)
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	No	60¢	82¢	$100	$137	+$37 (+37%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	68¢	$100	$105	+$5 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	40¢	42¢	$100	$104	+$4 (+4%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$100	$100	+$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5)	England	62¢	36¢	$150	$85	−$65 (-43%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Yes	64¢	39¢	$100	$61	−$39 (-39%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	68¢	69¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+2%)
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals	Yes	33¢	25¢	$50	$38	−$12 (-24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	19¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-3%)
England leading at halftime?	Yes	64¢	12¢	$100	$19	−$81 (-81%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 23	$51	+$26	+52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$1,143	+$208	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-96%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?	Jun 23	$182	−$182	-100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	Jun 23	$797	−$797	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 23	$5	+$3	+50%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 23	$48	+$18	+38%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$101	+$55	+55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$102	+$131	+129%
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 23	$607	+$410	+67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$1,181	+$563	+48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$540	−$361	-67%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND	Jun 21	$357	−$257	-72%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$898	1h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	33¢	$51	1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	1h
England leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	1h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	60¢	$101	1h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	63¢	$101	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,352	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$5	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	85¢	$38	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$5	14h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	61¢	$51	14h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	65¢	$51	14h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY Yes	62¢	$102	14h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$603	14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	85¢	$603	14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$20	14h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY No	72¢	$48	24h
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY France	59¢	$607	24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$183	25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	40¢	$102	25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	81¢	$503	25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$503	25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$102	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,744	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$1,000	36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$182	38h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,740.97 · official $2,715.62 (match) · 45 history records