Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x27f6…5b48 other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% $0
politics 21% −$6
sports 8% +$40
world 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 +4.8% -5.2% 9% 7% -9.4%
all 109 +4.8% -5.2% 9% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 7% -9.4%
10% -14.3% 7% -18.1%
15% -22.6% 7% -26.0%
20% -30.2% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×14.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage88d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $94 $0 -0%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $89 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $300 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $277 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $259 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $434 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $420 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 12 $265 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $260 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $252 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $257 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 09 $261 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $462 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $265 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $253 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $269 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $242 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $459 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Apr 20 $267 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $261 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $481 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $255 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $456 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $257 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $255 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 3h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $10 4h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 17h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 21h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $99 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 6d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 7d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 9d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $41 12d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 14d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $34 15d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $34 16d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 16d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 18d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 18d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.10 · official $109.10 (match) · 325 history records