Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27f6…400b crypto 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Covers last 45d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,337 (-159%) realized −$3,330 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%97W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$111
other 22% +$43
crypto 18% −$13
world 7% +$195
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -8.3% -17.1% 58% 50% +10.1%
≤30d 114 -10.7% -19.2% 56% 48% +0.5%
≤90d 205 -21.5% -29.0% 47% 38% -11.5%
all 205 -21.5% -29.0% 47% 38% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 38% -11.5%
10% -35.8% 31% -20.0%
15% -42.0% 24% -27.7%
20% -47.7% 21% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$3,330
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses97 / 108
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions16
Markets (closed)205 / 160
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? No 54¢ 76¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+41%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 42¢ 32¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? No 63¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Odd 74¢ 50¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 72¢ 46¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 82¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 71¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 57¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No 63¢ 78¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 52¢ 46¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 28¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 60¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 52¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 65¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 18 $9 −$18 -200%
Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $9 −$18 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$20 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 19? Jun 18 $2 −$4 -204%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 21? Jun 18 $2 −$4 -204%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 20 Jun 18 $7 −$13 -202%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$5 -204%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on April 21? Jun 18 $3 −$6 -204%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 19? Jun 18 $3 −$5 -204%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 20? Jun 18 $6 −$12 -202%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 21? Jun 18 $3 −$7 -203%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$3 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on April 19? Jun 18 $7 −$15 -201%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Jun 18 $8 −$16 -201%
Nottingham Forest FC leading at halftime? Jun 18 $4 −$7 -201%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $1 −$3 -202%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $3 −$5 -202%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April Jun 18 $1 −$3 -204%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $3 −$6 -201%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? Jun 18 $9 −$19 -200%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -202%
Fulham FC leading at halftime? Jun 18 $4 −$7 -201%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 18 $9 −$19 -200%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on April 20? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -203%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -201%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$4 -204%
Will US Cremonese vs. Torino FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$4 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 19 Jun 18 $4 −$8 -203%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 18 $9 −$18 -200%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 20? Jun 18 $3 −$7 -203%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -202%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 21? Jun 18 $2 −$4 -204%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 19? Jun 18 $2 −$5 -204%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -202%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $5 −$10 -202%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 19 Jun 18 $2 −$4 -202%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$43 +86%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$100 +197%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $92 +$219 +239%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 −$53 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $45 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $54 28h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 41h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $36 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $96 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $35 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 78¢ $34 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $92 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 69¢ $56 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 83¢ $66 5d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $50 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $25 26d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 56¢ $50 26d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY MOUZ 35¢ $51 26d
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) BUY Cavaliers 51¢ $77 31d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 64¢ $50 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? BUY No 74¢ $7 34d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 34d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 34d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 34d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $14 34d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 34d
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Play BUY MANA eSports 48¢ $5 35d
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 35d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $11 35d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026? BUY No 83¢ $7 35d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 73¢ $7 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.50 · official $98.50 (match) · 3500 history records