Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27f7…44b0 sports 676 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,935 (+0%) realized +$4,474 · open +$461
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%392W / 522L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,252per market
Trades / day123.7pace
Fees−$24,702est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$27,845now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$377,286
other 12% −$2,050
crypto 0% +$1,516
world 0% +$246
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 478 -72.0% -74.7% 15% 15% -71.1%
≤30d 914 -22.3% -29.7% 43% 42% -40.9%
≤90d 914 -22.3% -29.7% 43% 42% -40.9%
all 914 -22.3% -29.7% 43% 42% -40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.7% 42% -40.9%
10% -36.4% 37% -46.6%
15% ← realistic here -42.5% 31% -51.7%
20% -48.2% 26% -56.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$3,154) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +34% → late -78% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,191 vs −$3,794 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$27,845
Realized+$4,474
Unrealized+$461
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses392 / 522
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$24,702
Open positions30
Markets (closed)914 / 676
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$3,252
Trades / day123.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 914 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 50¢ 60¢ $5,966 $7,100 +$1,134 (+19%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 54¢ $6,025 $6,320 +$295 (+5%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1,759 $1,747 −$12 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 54¢ 56¢ $1,615 $1,659 +$45 (+3%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky New York Liberty 82¢ 82¢ $1,225 $1,232 +$7 (+1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 69¢ 68¢ $1,110 $1,101 −$8 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 55¢ $876 $1,096 +$219 (+25%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 48¢ 50¢ $1,047 $1,072 +$25 (+2%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 40¢ 20¢ $1,667 $833 −$833 (-50%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Dayana Yastremska 48¢ 48¢ $749 $741 −$8 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 83¢ 80¢ $761 $738 −$23 (-3%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 81¢ 81¢ $600 $604 +$4 (+1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 45¢ 48¢ $494 $533 +$38 (+8%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 57¢ 56¢ $526 $521 −$5 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 59¢ 56¢ $383 $360 −$23 (-6%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 22¢ $820 $353 −$468 (-57%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 40¢ 46¢ $308 $350 +$42 (+14%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $336 $339 +$3 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 49¢ 49¢ $321 $322 +$1 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 25¢ 26¢ $201 $205 +$4 (+2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 83¢ 84¢ $171 $172 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 62¢ 72¢ $115 $133 +$18 (+15%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 38¢ 38¢ $104 $105 +$1 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? No 60¢ 62¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+3%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Las Vegas Aces 77¢ 72¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 469 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 17 $643 −$643 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 17 $2,328 −$2,328 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 17 $7,831 −$7,831 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5 Jun 17 $477 −$477 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm Jun 17 $2,484 −$2,484 -100%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $918 −$918 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $417 −$417 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $2,060 −$2,060 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CF Pachuca end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 17 $2,411 −$2,411 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 17 $684 −$684 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $657 −$657 -100%
Will CA Talleres win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $719 −$719 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $6,883 −$6,883 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 17 $808 −$808 -100%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $381 −$381 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $9,510 −$9,510 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 Jun 17 $51,032 −$51,032 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 17 $3,796 −$3,796 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $1,240 −$1,240 -100%
CR Flamengo vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $511 −$511 -100%
Copa Colsanitas: Marie Bouzkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 17 $1,524 −$1,524 -100%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-04-03? Jun 17 $6,420 −$6,418 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 17 $3,363 −$3,363 -100%
Predators vs. Sharks Jun 17 $15,540 −$15,540 -100%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5) Jun 17 $16,123 −$16,123 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 168.5 Jun 17 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 17 $686 −$686 -100%
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-04-12? Jun 17 $2,188 −$2,188 -100%
Will Atlas FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $2,296 −$2,296 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 17 $7,915 −$7,915 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Sinja Kraus Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $2,517 −$2,517 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,633 −$1,633 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-10.5) Jun 17 $6,240 −$6,240 -100%
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC end in a draw? Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets Jun 17 $2,378 −$2,378 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $1,590 −$1,590 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Jun 17 $1,545 −$1,545 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5,126 −$5,126 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 Jun 17 $2,132 −$2,132 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai Jun 17 $5,523 −$5,523 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $1,735 −$1,735 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? Jun 17 $921 −$921 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 82¢ $6 8m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 82¢ $6 8m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 82¢ $1,220 10m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $3 18m
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 48¢ $351 20m
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 48¢ $321 25m
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 48¢ $89 27m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $20 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $380 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $1,237 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $164 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $15 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $465 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $4 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $15 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $3 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $25 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $71 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $144 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $7 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $7 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $14 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $4 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $122 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $7 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,845.04 · official $27,845.20 (match) · 3500 history records