Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:55:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27fc…c4f8 world 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$83 (-1%) realized −$84 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%37W / 72L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$57
14 days−$60
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$35
other 25% −$8
sports 12% −$34
politics 11% −$5
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.1% -14.1% 36% 0% -13.6%
≤30d 34 -1.7% -11.0% 44% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 43 -1.4% -10.8% 42% 0% -10.2%
all 109 -1.5% -10.9% 34% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -10.2%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses37 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage447d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $119 $120 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $118 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $62 −$9 -14%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $140 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $111 −$49 -44%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $189 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $61 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $187 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $169 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $193 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 18 $16 −$1 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $13 −$1 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $315 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $391 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $171 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $91 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $847 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $106 −$6 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $330 −$2 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $287 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $170 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $6 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $169 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $248 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $233 +$7 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $168 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $327 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $185 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $118 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $126 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $173 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $136 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $160 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $135 +$2 +2%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $5 $0 +10%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $231 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $867 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $956 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $869 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $345 −$33 -10%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $32 −$2 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $901 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $2 $0 -20%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $0 $0 -60%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 22 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $119 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $118 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $118 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $53 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $27 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $111 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $29 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $140 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $111 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $189 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $189 31h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $61 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $61 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $20 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $181 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $187 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $5 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $164 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $6 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $155 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.54 · official $119.54 (match) · 521 history records