Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:24:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x27fe…95e3
politics · 111 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$1,438 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,435 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,325
Realized−$1,435
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses27 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
Avg bet$966
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 110 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$11
14 days−$16
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,326 $1,325 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,296 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,400 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,451 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,822 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $287 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $611 +$2 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $508 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $732 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,083 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,463 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,896 −$4 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $2,554 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,199 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 04 $205 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 04 $257 +$1 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $2,074 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,959 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,058 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,347 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $1,314 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,076 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $1,357 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,252 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,339 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $3,529 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,158 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $3,434 −$3 -0%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 10 $1,283 −$1,283 -100%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $34 $0 -0%
Kraken vs. Blues Apr 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5) Apr 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Magic (-10.5) Apr 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Nuggets vs. Knicks Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% −$58
other 28% −$123
sports 13% −$1,267
culture 7% −$4
economics 5% −$2
crypto 1% +$5
world 1% −$4
finance 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,326 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,295 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,296 4h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,288 25h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,290 26h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 26h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,248 28h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,284 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,286 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,039 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,041 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,153 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,155 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,338 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,340 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,150 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,152 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,262 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,264 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $557 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $557 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $432 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $432 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $507 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $508 16d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $517 16d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $517 16d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $349 16d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $350 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $287 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -16.5% -24.5% 12% 1% -11.9%
all 110 -4.1% -13.2% 25% 10% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 10% -10.8%
10% -21.5% 10% -19.3%
15% -29.1% 7% -27.1%
20% -36.1% 6% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,325.07 · official $1,325.07 (match) · 325 history records