Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
28 0x2802…7e81 other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$13
politics 21% −$3
economics 7% −$1
sports 4% −$4
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 93 -4.7% -13.7% 10% 5% -9.7%
all 95 -4.6% -13.7% 9% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 5% -9.7%
10% -21.9% 5% -18.3%
15% -29.5% 5% -26.2%
20% -36.4% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 86
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)95 / 98
History coverage91d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $179 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $177 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 06 $67 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $190 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $172 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $328 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $162 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $175 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 07 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $171 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $293 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $167 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $320 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $328 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $165 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $281 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $175 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $169 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $341 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $341 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $166 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $317 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $492 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $331 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $307 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $642 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $168 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $330 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $343 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $163 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $169 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $170 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 20h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 24h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 42h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 44h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $109 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 25d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $29 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $29 29d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $67 29d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 30d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 30d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $33 31d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $33 31d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 32d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 32d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $159 35d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $159 35d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $161 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.81 · official $192.81 (match) · 266 history records