Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2802…db22 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$350 (-14%) realized −$340 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$163
7 days−$429
14 days−$413
30 days−$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$307
other 30% −$81
crypto 5% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -21.0% -28.6% 43% 31% -25.0%
≤30d 62 -18.3% -26.1% 44% 32% -24.4%
≤90d 62 -18.3% -26.1% 44% 32% -24.4%
all 62 -18.3% -26.1% 44% 32% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 32% -24.4%
10% -33.2% 23% -31.7%
15% -39.6% 19% -38.3%
20% -45.6% 13% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$19 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$340
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage7d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$4 -14%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $52 −$22 -41%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $177 −$123 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 +$33 +123%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $124 +$11 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 −$3 -15%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$9 -46%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $73 −$69 -95%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $140 +$5 +4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $141 −$2 -2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 +$5 +16%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $282 −$19 -7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$35 +85%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$28 -68%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $126 +$20 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $184 +$11 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $25 −$16 -65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $98 +$46 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $72 −$27 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $59 +$9 +15%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 55m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $26 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $31 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $31 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $52 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $54 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $132 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $44 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1.67 · 151 history records