Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:47:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x2802…9782
other · 62 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$6 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 38
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage446d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 3 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $56 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $27 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $62 −$3 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 11 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 10 $8 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 10 $24 $0 -2%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $41 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Jul 07 $3 $0 -8%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 07 $3 $0 +7%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 07 $16 $0 -1%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 06 $5 $0 -10%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 05 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 02 $1 $0 +8%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $20 $0 -1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 26 $3 +$8 +241%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 21 $2 $0 -8%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Poland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 17 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% −$1
other 37% $0
politics 12% +$8
crypto 6% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $27 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $30 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $30 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $28 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $4 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $23 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $27 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $27 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $29 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $24 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $5 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $29 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 6d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 8¢ $4 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 11 +0.1% -9.5% 27% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 11 +0.1% -9.5% 27% 0% -9.8%
all 59 +2.5% -7.3% 36% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 3% -8.9%
10% -16.1% 2% -17.6%
15% -24.2% 2% -25.6%
20% -31.7% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.17 · official $27.99 (match) · 254 history records