Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:41:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x2807…1863 politics 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$33 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$16
politics 38% −$14
tech 5% −$2
sports 5% +$63
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 +0.5% -9.0% 6% 6% -9.5%
all 117 +0.7% -8.9% 9% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 9% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 5% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 5% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×11.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage110d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bucks vs. Clippers Bucks 15¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Clippers Pacers 16¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Nets vs. Pistons Pistons 90¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Celtics Hawks 34¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Lakers Wizards 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $300 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $357 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $272 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $255 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $283 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $315 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $263 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $226 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $228 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $293 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 15 $309 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $508 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $244 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $274 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $228 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $226 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $321 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 27 $254 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 26 $326 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 24 $310 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $239 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $286 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $244 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $324 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $304 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $258 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $268 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $278 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $285 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $312 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $293 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $311 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $262 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 9h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 5d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $49 6d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $49 6d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 6d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 8d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $39 8d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 9d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $272 17d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $272 19d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $255 19d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $255 19d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $283 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $283 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $283 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $283 23d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $246 23d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $246 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 346 history records