Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x280a…5a49 weather 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$159 (+8%) realized +$166 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate85%17W / 3L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$169
weather 44% −$3
other 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤90d 7 -3.8% -13.0% 86% 14% -18.8%
all 20 -1.3% -10.7% 85% 15% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 15% -2.0%
10% -19.3% 10% -11.4%
15% -27.1% 0% -20.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.4 per $1 lost it wins $4.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$166
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses17 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage141d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? No 87¢ 70¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 27? May 27 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 16? May 16 $27 +$7 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 11? May 11 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 26? May 03 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 4? Apr 05 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 23? Mar 23 $44 −$31 -71%
76ers vs. Pistons Mar 23 $44 $0 +0%
Pelicans vs. Kings Mar 06 $300 +$53 +18%
Raptors vs. Timberwolves Mar 06 $301 +$16 +5%
Mavericks vs. Magic Mar 06 $302 +$100 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 5? Mar 05 $302 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 5? Mar 05 $300 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4? Mar 05 $45 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 18? Mar 04 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 1 Feb 17 $12 +$1 +7%
Pistons vs. Raptors Feb 13 $44 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Timberwolves Feb 10 $43 $0 -0%
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 03 $16 −$15 -92%
Infinex FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 01 $16 +$1 +4%
Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jan 30 $15 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 27? BUY No 96¢ $33 22d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 16? SELL No 100¢ $34 33d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 16? BUY No 80¢ $27 33d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 11? BUY No 94¢ $25 38d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 26? BUY No 94¢ $14 52d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 4? BUY No 97¢ $13 75d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 23? SELL No 25¢ $13 86d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 23? BUY No 85¢ $44 86d
76ers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $44 97d
Pelicans vs. Kings SELL Pelicans 100¢ $353 104d
Pelicans vs. Kings BUY Pelicans 85¢ $300 104d
Raptors vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $317 104d
Raptors vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 95¢ $301 104d
Mavericks vs. Magic SELL Magic 100¢ $402 104d
Mavericks vs. Magic BUY Magic 75¢ $302 104d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 5? SELL No 100¢ $310 104d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 5? BUY No 97¢ $302 104d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 5? SELL No 100¢ $311 104d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 5? BUY No 96¢ $100 104d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 5? BUY No 96¢ $100 104d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 5? BUY No 96¢ $100 104d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4? BUY No 91¢ $45 105d
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 18? BUY No 95¢ $13 120d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 1 BUY No 94¢ $12 124d
Pistons vs. Raptors BUY Pistons 100¢ $44 126d
Hawks vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $43 128d
Hawks vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 100¢ $43 128d
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 134d
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.36 · official $28.36 (match) · 44 history records