Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
28 0x2813…3177 sports 431 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$613 (-4%) realized −$599 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate49%210W / 221L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day62.1pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$370
14 days−$407
30 days−$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$683
other 15% −$214
world 1% $0
politics 1% −$34
crypto 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -18.4% -26.2% 51% 12% -20.4%
≤30d 211 -7.9% -16.7% 52% 18% -13.0%
≤90d 431 -10.4% -19.0% 49% 21% -14.9%
all 431 -10.4% -19.0% 49% 21% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 21% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 11% -23.1%
15% -33.8% 7% -30.5%
20% -40.3% 4% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$599
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses210 / 221
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions3
Markets (closed)431 / 431
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day62.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $51 $37 −$14 (-27%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Madrid Open: Andrey Rublev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $120 +$26 +22%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $203 +$4 +2%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 −$28 -50%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$67 -44%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $56 +$4 +7%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $27 +$1 +3%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $35 +$6 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $115 +$1 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +78%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $71 +$1 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$1 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $65 +$2 +2%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $10 −$3 -29%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $61 −$5 -9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $70 +$1 +1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$5 +36%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $10 −$3 -31%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 −$4 -7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$18 -89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $216 −$63 -29%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $123 −$48 -39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $160 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $631 −$43 -7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $280 −$19 -7%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$2 -13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $129 −$44 -34%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $55 +$4 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $15 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 1¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 90¢ $117 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 77¢ $87 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 77¢ $13 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 24¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 48¢ $66 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $20 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $98 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 74¢ $15 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 72¢ $45 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 73¢ $2 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 73¢ $8 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $5 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $5 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $5 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $5 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $5 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 68¢ $0 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 68¢ $2 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 68¢ $3 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 66¢ $5 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.70 · official $48.70 (match) · 3500 history records