Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2815…ce37 politics 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$279 (-0%) realized −$279 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate27%40W / 107L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$939per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$17
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$70
other 34% −$236
sports 16% +$41
culture 2% −$4
world 2% +$1
economics 2% −$2
crypto 1% −$5
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 -14.7% -22.8% 8% 0% -11.3%
all 147 -0.4% -9.9% 27% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 8% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 8% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 7% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,173) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$17 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses40 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage145d
Avg bet$939
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $697 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,042 −$4 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,850 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,013 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,060 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,983 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $5,362 −$6 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $388 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $708 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $872 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,001 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,827 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,823 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,570 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $1,506 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 09 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,136 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $2,279 −$3 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,166 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,099 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $2,075 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 02 $280 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 02 $311 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 02 $344 +$1 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,196 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,115 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $2,014 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,117 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $2,075 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $5,506 −$6 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,071 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $632 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $633 3h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $697 12h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $697 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $984 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $986 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $991 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $992 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,014 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,015 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,012 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,013 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,021 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,022 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $834 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $835 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,043 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,045 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,059 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,060 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $955 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $957 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $773 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $774 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $890 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $891 15d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $556 15d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $557 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $799 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $800 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 457 history records