Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
28 0x2815…7f0c sports 648 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate71%439W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$167
14 days−$1,398
30 days−$610
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$304
sports 32% −$229
politics 13% +$63
world 9% +$44
weather 4% −$43
crypto 2% −$59
tech 0% +$8
culture 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +4.4% -5.6% 69% 56% -4.4%
≤30d 259 -9.9% -18.5% 56% 51% -15.7%
≤90d 467 -4.3% -13.4% 65% 57% -9.5%
all 619 -1.0% -10.4% 71% 55% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 55% -8.6%
10% -19.0% 39% -17.4%
15% -26.8% 26% -25.4%
20% -34.0% 17% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$563
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses439 / 180
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions22
Markets (closed)619 / 648
History coverage141d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $79 $94 +$15 (+19%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? No 75¢ 76¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $62 $50 −$12 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $39 $46 +$8 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 55¢ 92¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+68%)
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 81¢ 88¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $40 $25 −$14 (-36%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 59¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 38¢ 28¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-26%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Halle Berry as Storm? No 60¢ 73¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+22%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? Yes 50¢ 51¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $35 $9 −$26 (-73%)
Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine? No 58¢ 44¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 +$33 +22%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $25 +$12 +46%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$59 +116%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $126 +$34 +27%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $25 +$22 +85%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$9 +34%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 +$20 +79%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 +$5 +20%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 Jun 19 $80 +$20 +24%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06 Jun 18 $10 +$6 +61%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$4 +24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $55 +$5 +8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$11 +112%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $35 −$1 -4%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$11 -69%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$6 +58%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$19 +64%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$17 +82%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$8 +55%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +20%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $30 +$24 +79%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$11 +54%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 86¢ $100 53m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $25 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $25 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 53¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $25 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 4h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $25 7h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wil BUY 54¢ $10 8h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 64¢ $25 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $100 8h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $15 10h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Will J BUY 45¢ $10 14h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 14h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $10 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 51¢ $25 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 28h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 90¢ $43 28h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 83¢ $25 34h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $25 35h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $25 35h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Wil BUY 35¢ $15 39h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $25 40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $25 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $6 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $6 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY 54¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.01 · official $563.08 (match) · 1653 history records