Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
28 0x2818…5369 weather 428 markets active 0h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$280 (-0%) realized −$272 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate95%403W / 23L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$332per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$643now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$280
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 426 -0.3% -9.8% 95% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -9.3%
10% -18.4% 3% -17.9%
15% -26.3% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$118 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$643
Realized−$272
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses403 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)426 / 428
History coverage171d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 426 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 59¢ $374 $369 −$5 (-1%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 44¢ $277 $274 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on March 11? Mar 12 $181 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 11 Mar 12 $924 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 11? Mar 11 $273 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 10? Mar 11 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 10? Mar 10 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Mar 10 $872 +$18 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 10? Mar 10 $242 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 10? Mar 10 $1,110 −$702 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 11? Mar 10 $1,617 −$195 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or below on March 10? Mar 10 $407 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 9? Mar 10 $443 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on March 9? Mar 10 $760 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C or higher on Marc Mar 10 $1,685 +$21 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or below on March Mar 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 9? Mar 10 $132 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 63°F or below on March 9? Mar 10 $134 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 9? Mar 10 $145 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 9? Mar 10 $160 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 9? Mar 10 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on March 9? Mar 10 $255 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on March 9? Mar 10 $504 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 9? Mar 10 $607 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 9? Mar 10 $750 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 9? Mar 10 $917 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 9? Mar 10 $1,512 +$15 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 9? Mar 10 $1,592 +$8 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 9? Mar 09 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on March 9? Mar 09 $377 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on March 9? Mar 09 $500 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 8? Mar 09 $304 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C or higher on Marc Mar 09 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on March 8? Mar 09 $261 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 8? Mar 09 $1,812 +$25 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 8? Mar 09 $156 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on March 8? Mar 09 $839 +$13 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ma Mar 08 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on March 7? Mar 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 7? Mar 08 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 8? Mar 08 $154 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C or higher on Marc Mar 08 $190 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on March 7? Mar 08 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on March 7? Mar 08 $202 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 7? Mar 08 $322 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 7? Mar 08 $379 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 7? Mar 08 $422 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C or below on March 7? Mar 08 $500 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on March 7? Mar 08 $525 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ma Mar 08 $873 +$14 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 7? Mar 08 $1,097 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on Mar Mar 07 $305 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 59¢ $2 21m
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 59¢ $3 48m
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 59¢ $4 51m
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $124 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 45¢ $94 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 45¢ $47 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 45¢ $47 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $62 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 59¢ $36 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 45¢ $47 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 45¢ $47 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $62 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $62 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 10? SELL No 30¢ $253 103d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 10? SELL No 52¢ $155 103d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 11? SELL No 85¢ $1,422 103d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 10? BUY No 93¢ $100 103d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 11? BUY No 96¢ $500 103d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 11? BUY No 96¢ $44 103d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 10? BUY No 96¢ $34 103d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 11 BUY No 99¢ $509 103d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 11 BUY No 99¢ $100 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $643.01 · official $643.01 (match) · 1334 history records