Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x2818…1338
weather · 1198 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$26 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses951 / 232
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1183 / 1198
History coverage120d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 15 History 1183 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$19
14 days+$26
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 78¢ 91¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? No 90¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 88¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 86¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 96¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 81¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? No 93¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? No 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Yes 57¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+74%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? No 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 6? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? No 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 22? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 5? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? No 92¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 4? No 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4? No 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 3? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? No 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $3 +$2 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 80% −$2
finance 6% −$38
culture 4% +$3
other 4% −$8
world 3% +$4
crypto 2% −$10
tech 0% −$15
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $2 43m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 43m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 14¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 175 +1.1% -8.6% 78% 46% -7.0%
≤30d 465 -0.5% -9.9% 79% 42% -9.5%
≤90d 1091 -0.6% -10.0% 80% 28% -10.8%
all 1183 -0.2% -9.7% 80% 29% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 29% -10.8%
10% -18.3% 10% -19.3%
15% -26.2% 5% -27.1%
20% -33.5% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.17 · official $43.79 (match) · 2517 history records