Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x281e…bd8a world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$19
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$17
other 7% −$3
politics 6% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.9% -12.2% 0% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 16 +12.1% +1.4% 31% 6% -8.1%
≤90d 16 +12.1% +1.4% 31% 6% -8.1%
all 42 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 2% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -8.5%
10% -17.8% 2% -17.3%
15% -25.7% 2% -25.3%
20% -33.0% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage322d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $63 −$4 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $89 −$16 -18%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $167 +$2 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $64 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $86 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $7 −$2 -24%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $163 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $83 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $11 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $15 +$35 +235%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Dec 22 $1 $0 -37%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 26 $8 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 25 $7 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 12 $1 $0 -38%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump mention "Sydney Sweeney" again by Friday? Aug 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 06 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $27 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $38 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $21 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $37 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $26 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $58 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $58 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 69¢ $7 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 69¢ $21 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 69¢ $46 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $33 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $31 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $25 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $47 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $33 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $36 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $8 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $36 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $41 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $48 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $87 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $75 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $76 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $11 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $50 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $36 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records