Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:54:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x281f…7929 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$217
7 days−$412
14 days−$412
30 days−$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$130
other 21% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -27.8% -34.7% 50% 42% -20.4%
≤30d 24 -27.8% -34.7% 50% 42% -20.4%
≤90d 24 -27.8% -34.7% 50% 42% -20.4%
all 25 -25.3% -32.4% 52% 44% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 44% -15.0%
10% -38.9% 36% -23.1%
15% -44.8% 24% -30.6%
20% -50.2% 16% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$81 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage199d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,509 +$380 +25%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $503 −$373 -74%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $502 +$90 +18%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +82%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $201 +$37 +18%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $500 +$174 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,890 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1,509 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 22¢ $129 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $202 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $503 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $593 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes $0 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $301 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $101 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $201 17h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes $0 25h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $29 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $19 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records