Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2822…ae31 crypto 1446 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$368 (-1%) realized −$368 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate64%931W / 515L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days+$136
14 days+$25
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$557
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +26.7% +14.6% 59% 59% +6.9%
≤30d 388 -5.6% -14.6% 47% 30% -11.1%
≤90d 1446 -2.6% -11.9% 64% 44% -11.3%
all 1446 -2.6% -11.9% 64% 44% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 44% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 26% -19.8%
15% -28.0% 18% -27.6%
20% -35.1% 14% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$368
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses931 / 515
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1446 / 1446
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1446 Trades
no open positions (63 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$20 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$20 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$11 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$24 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$15 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$18 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$20 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$53 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$41 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$22 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$41 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$36 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$23 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$12 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$23 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$24 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$9 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$9 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $16 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $36 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $17 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $16 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $13 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $14 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $32 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $35 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $17 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $32 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $17 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $40 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records