Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2827…fa58 world 57 markets active 4h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%19W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$2
other 19% $0
sports 11% −$13
politics 10% $0
economics 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -11.7% -20.1% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 20 -5.0% -14.1% 35% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 56 -2.0% -11.4% 34% 2% -9.6%
all 57 -3.8% -12.9% 33% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 2% -10.2%
10% -21.3% 2% -18.8%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses19 / 38
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage482d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $13 −$1 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $71 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $98 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $2 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $34 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $34 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $36 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $35 $0 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $37 $0 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $2 $0 -9%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $3 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Mar 31 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $9 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $0 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $4 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $4 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $35 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 31h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $35 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $35 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $15 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $20 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $36 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $5 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $13 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $17 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $17 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $19 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $36 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $32 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.00 (match) · 225 history records