Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2828…91b8 crypto 490 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (983 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$220 (-4%) realized −$220 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%258W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day983.4pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$288
other 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (983 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 487 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 53% -13.0%
≤30d 487 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 53% -13.0%
≤90d 487 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 53% -13.0%
all 487 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 53% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover983.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 53% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 53% -21.3%
15% -25.7% 53% -28.9%
20% -32.9% 37% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses258 / 229
Open positions1
Markets (closed)487 / 490
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day983.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 487 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 48¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$19 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$7 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$11 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $122 −$108 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $134 −$128 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $72 −$59 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$15 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$32 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$11 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$9 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $0 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.47 · official $3.61 (match) · 1716 history records