Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:10:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x2829…e498
crypto · 173 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses78 / 94
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day72.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 172 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Up 56¢ 94¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+68%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$6 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$8 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$6 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$6 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 42% -10.5%
≤30d 172 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 42% -10.5%
≤90d 172 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 42% -10.5%
all 172 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 42% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover72.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 42% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 39% -19.0%
15% -26.5% 35% -26.9%
20% -33.7% 31% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.03 · official $14.03 (match) · 479 history records