Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x282b…f041
crypto · 496 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$356 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$356 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$356
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses237 / 258
Open positions1
Markets (closed)495 / 496
History coverage3d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1150.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 495 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$313
7 days−$356
14 days−$356
30 days−$356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 51¢ 46¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 49¢ 55¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $47 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $44 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$16 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$15 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $41 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$18 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $18 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $13 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 495 +5.9% -4.2% 48% 41% -12.6%
≤30d 495 +5.9% -4.2% 48% 41% -12.6%
≤90d 495 +5.9% -4.2% 48% 41% -12.6%
all 495 +5.9% -4.2% 48% 41% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1150.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 41% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 36% -20.9%
15% -21.7% 28% -28.6%
20% -29.4% 20% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.14 · official $16.81 · 3500 history records