Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x282b…cc76
sports · 237 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$297 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$246 · open −$51
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$185
Realized−$246
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses121 / 104
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions12
Markets (closed)225 / 237
History coverage68d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 12 History 225 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 65¢ 98¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+51%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 76¢ 69¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) New York Yankees 55¢ 72¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+31%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 73¢ 86¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+18%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ 96¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+85%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Houston Astros 55¢ 66¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 62¢ 74¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 28¢ 2¢ $35 $2 −$33 (-95%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 39¢ 1¢ $45 $2 −$43 (-96%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Toronto Tempo 13¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Team Heretics 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp Blue 53¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Leviatán Esports 44¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? No 31¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros 45¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Chicago Cubs 62¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Spirit 63¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Under 47¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner FURIA 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets New York Mets 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 66¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $31 +$41 +134%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $10 +$9 +86%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$2 -8%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 −$2 -7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$31 +101%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$14 +70%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$27 +45%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $81 +$60 +74%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $81 −$80 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $71 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$19 +62%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $41 +$30 +74%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$3 -22%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$18 +90%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $51 +$30 +58%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $30 +$30 +97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$22 +109%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 11 $50 +$11 +22%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $41 −$35 -86%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 −$41 -82%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $71 −$50 -70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $30 +$27 +90%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $51 +$33 +65%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $61 +$57 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $30 +$10 +34%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $30 +$11 +36%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $23 +$17 +77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 89% +$146
other 10% −$405
crypto 1% −$51
world 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 76¢ $30 16m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 13¢ $5 19m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 28¢ $15 30m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 28¢ $20 31m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $71 31m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $19 40m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 47¢ $19 53m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 53m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 30¢ $15 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 57¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $28 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 73¢ $17 1h
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $15 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 65¢ $20 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 55¢ $0 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 45¢ $30 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 55¢ $10 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 40¢ $10 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $20 3h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $10 3h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $10 3h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 62¢ $10 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 4h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $10 4h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -0.8% -10.3% 53% 52% -8.4%
≤30d 126 -0.8% -10.3% 53% 52% -8.4%
≤90d 225 -0.2% -9.7% 54% 53% -12.1%
all 225 -0.2% -9.7% 54% 53% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 53% -12.1%
10% -18.4% 50% -20.5%
15% -26.3% 48% -28.2%
20% -33.5% 41% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.27 · official $185.28 (match) · 552 history records