Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x282c…c772 crypto 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$836 (-4%) realized −$868 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate72%184W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$10
14 days+$55
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$1,082
politics 15% +$46
world 9% +$136
other 4% −$52
tech 1% +$24
finance 1% +$4
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.5% -16.3% 57% 43% +3.8%
≤30d 13 +7.2% -3.0% 77% 62% +4.8%
≤90d 19 -5.8% -14.8% 63% 53% +0.1%
all 256 +1.0% -8.6% 72% 48% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 48% -13.8%
10% -17.4% 32% -22.1%
15% -25.3% 25% -29.6%
20% -32.7% 19% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$60 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$868
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses184 / 72
Open positions6
Markets (closed)256 / 262
History coverage599d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Blue wave in 2026? Yes 62¢ 73¢ $102 $120 +$18 (+18%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 83¢ 94¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$20 +79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $250 +$35 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 04 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 22 $23 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 21 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 21 $20 +$23 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 18 $54 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 18 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 18 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 18 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 01 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 01 $40 −$17 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 01 $30 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 01 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 17 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 16 $25 −$14 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 16 $5 +$9 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 84¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 83¢ $5 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 62¢ $10 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $9 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $10 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $13 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.84 · official $254.85 (match) · 698 history records