Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
28 0x282e…e8e6 world 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$496 (+3%) realized +$825 · open −$329
Gross ROI / mkt +125% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +104% what you keep after slip
Net edge+104%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate67%14W / 7L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$649per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$477
7 days+$576
14 days+$226
30 days+$709
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% +$738
politics 2% −$248
crypto 2% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+103.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +11.8% +1.2% 100% 50% +2.1%
≤30d 17 +150.4% +126.6% 65% 41% +1.1%
≤90d 21 +125.4% +103.9% 67% 48% +1.3%
all 21 +125.4% +103.9% 67% 48% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +103.9% 48% +1.3%
10% +84.4% 24% -8.4%
15% +66.6% 14% -17.2%
20% +50.3% 10% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +125% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$623) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +93% → late +155% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$71 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$3,591
Realized+$825
Unrealized−$329
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses14 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)21 / 27
History coverage79d
Avg bet$649
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $3,001 $3,017 +$16 (+1%)
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 96¢ 78¢ $328 $267 −$61 (-19%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 44¢ 36¢ $200 $161 −$39 (-20%)
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 12¢ $390 $146 −$244 (-63%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $3,474 +$477 +14%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $1,000 +$99 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $243 +$19 +8%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,803 −$421 -15%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential Jun 13 $14 −$4 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $472 +$78 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,669 −$16 -1%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 07 $113 +$35 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $753 +$101 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,017 +$221 +22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 28 $50 −$49 -97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 28 $10 +$90 +900%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $623 +$62 +10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? May 25 $506 +$6 +1%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? May 25 $100 +$18 +18%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +42%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $1 $0 -14%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 12 $100 +$14 +14%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 06 $100 +$35 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $17 11m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $48 11m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $28 42m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $214 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $488 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2,574 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $21 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $90 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3,463 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $271 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $270 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $205 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $206 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $417 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $416 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $160 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $39 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $206 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $61 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes $9 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes $8 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes $8 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes $8 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,591.48 · official $3,591.10 (match) · 159 history records