Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2831…5473 sports 606 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,445 (+0%) realized +$1,443 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate74%445W / 160L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$571per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$2,793est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$5,058
14 days−$8,586
30 days−$4,130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$185
crypto 1% −$41
world 1% −$157
other 1% +$36
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -3.3% -12.5% 73% 8% -18.2%
≤30d 245 -8.1% -16.9% 72% 24% -11.0%
≤90d 605 -2.3% -11.6% 74% 34% -9.5%
all 605 -2.3% -11.6% 74% 34% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 34% -9.5%
10% -20.0% 14% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -27.8% 9% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$134 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1,443
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses445 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$2,793
Open positions1
Markets (closed)605 / 606
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$571
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 0¢ 86¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 19 $944 +$49 +5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $301 −$175 -58%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $148 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $221 +$7 +3%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $68 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $96 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $490 +$10 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,971 +$20 +1%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $190 +$10 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $172 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,928 +$35 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $245 +$5 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $23 +$2 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $1,546 +$7 +0%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame Jun 17 $227 +$23 +10%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $40 +$10 +25%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $479 −$24 -5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $44 +$6 +14%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 +$1 +15%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $46 +$4 +10%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $720 +$20 +3%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $1,186 +$5 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $1,169 −$81 -7%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $24 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $1,031 −$54 -5%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $127 +$13 +10%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $417 +$11 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $840 +$18 +2%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $182 +$18 +10%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $199 +$6 +3%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $185 $0 -0%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $490 +$10 +2%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $204 +$17 +8%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $689 +$48 +7%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $50 −$24 -48%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $78 +$16 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $3,573 +$201 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $980 +$20 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $485 +$15 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $175 +$11 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,480 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $971 +$29 +3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1,573 +$104 +7%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $980 +$19 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 87¢ $2 2m
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri SELL PlayTime 100¢ $992 5m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 37¢ $109 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 94¢ $281 1h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY PlayTime 96¢ $480 1h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY PlayTime 94¢ $464 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 68¢ $17 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 80¢ $20 5h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 36¢ $45 5h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 36¢ $46 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY ex-RUBY 98¢ $10 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $53 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $148 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $97 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $10 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $88 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 85¢ $26 8h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 96¢ $18 16h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 96¢ $25 16h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 96¢ $53 16h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 98¢ $490 16h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 99¢ $987 16h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 99¢ $3 16h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 98¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 98¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? SELL No 98¢ $13 16h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? SELL No 98¢ $13 16h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? SELL No 98¢ $33 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.16 · official $2.19 (match) · 3500 history records