Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2835…5b52 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$7
world 34% +$5
crypto 8% $0
culture 4% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 11 +7.3% -2.9% 55% 18% -8.3%
≤90d 11 +7.3% -2.9% 55% 18% -8.3%
all 36 -0.6% -10.0% 36% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 8% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage300d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $1 +$1 +63%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $69 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $79 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $12 +$1 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $41 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $34 +$4 +11%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $50 −$7 -15%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $63 +$4 +7%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-23? Nov 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $70 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? Oct 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +11%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $40 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $43 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $43 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $39 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $17 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $22 11h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $15 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $15 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $22 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $12 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $25 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $9 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $20 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $26 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $9 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $40 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $41 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $38 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records