Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x2836…c0b1
other · 1091 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$218 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$335 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$335
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses59 / 1140
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1199 / 1091
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 15 History 1199 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$70
14 days−$70
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 38¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+233%)
Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1033%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 35¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+186%)
Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+117%)
Will Marada Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Union Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 36¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+178%)
Will Mada Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Islamic Group win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Independence Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Dignity Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Raymond Petersen be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Martin Zubimendi win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will Owen McCarthy win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 25 be between 1,800,000 and 1,900,000? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Meta (META) close above $860 end of February? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $110? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the New Orleans Saints be the Top Defense/Special Teams of the 2025–26 NFL Regular Season? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ian Matteoli (ITA) win the gold medal for Snowboard Slopestyle - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the US strike Iran next? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Rafael Campos win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will San Marino record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New Orleans Saints be the Top Defense/Special Teams of the 20 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rafael Campos win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alejandro Tosti win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Buffalo beat Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks be the Top Defense/Special Teams of the 2025 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Democrat shutdown" in December? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BPL: Durdanto Dhaka vs Rangpur Riders (Game 1) - Team Top Batter Rangp Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of January 5 above $174? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 5 above $215? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of December 29 above $185? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on January 2? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cameron Dicker be the Top Fantasy Kicker of the 2025–26 NFL Regul Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shahar "⁠flameZ⁠" Shushan win the HLTV Opener of the Year award Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Beyoncé release a new song in 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Arizona Cardinals be the Top Defense/Special Teams of the 202 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Keita Nakajima win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Christo Lamprecht win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Yuta Sugiura win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tyler Loop be the Top Fantasy Kicker of the 2025–26 NFL Regular S Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on January 5? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kliff Kingsbury be the next Giants Head Coach? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 5 above $330? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Calen Bullock lead the NFL in interceptions this season? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of January 5 above $173? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anson Cabello win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Amazon dip to $216 in December? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan L. Smith win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kota Yuta Kaneko win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on January 6? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on January 5? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 18? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will When No One Sees Us win Best Foreign Language Series at the 2026 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wil Lutz be the Top Fantasy Kicker of the 2025–26 NFL Regular Sea Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BPL: Durdanto Dhaka vs Rangpur Riders (Game 1) - Most Sixes Durdanto D Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sean McDermott be the next NFL Head Coach fired? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on January 7? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Taisei Nagasaki win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Steven Fisk win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on January 3? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ryo Hisatsune win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Delroy Lindo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th A Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 1? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
AG Super Play to win 0 games? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.30 on January 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on January Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on January 2? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Carolina Panthers be eliminated in the Conference Championshi Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
MANA eSports to win 0 maps? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% −$76
other 27% −$45
tech 7% −$57
sports 4% +$37
world 3% −$24
politics 3% −$19
weather 2% −$19
culture 2% −$16
finance 0% −$4
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $7 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-87.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 235 -49.2% -54.0% 24% 20% -23.9%
≤30d 235 -49.2% -54.0% 24% 20% -23.9%
≤90d 235 -49.2% -54.0% 24% 20% -23.9%
all 1199 -86.5% -87.8% 5% 4% -63.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -87.8% 4% -63.1%
10% ← realistic here -89.0% 3% -66.7%
15% -90.0% 3% -69.9%
20% -91.0% 2% -72.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.60 · official $13.05 · 3500 history records