Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:20:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2837…fd84 weather 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$207 (-4%) realized −$238 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate72%38W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$276
14 days−$269
30 days−$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$190
other 13% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -0.2% -9.7% 69% 31% -15.9%
≤30d 53 +0.6% -9.0% 72% 30% -15.5%
≤90d 53 +0.6% -9.0% 72% 30% -15.5%
all 53 +0.6% -9.0% 72% 30% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 30% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 11% -23.5%
15% -25.6% 2% -30.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$35 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$597
Realized−$238
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses38 / 15
Open positions10
Markets (closed)53 / 63
History coverage8d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 29? No 91¢ 90¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 27? No 90¢ 97¢ $90 $97 +$7 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 27? No 91¢ 100¢ $74 $81 +$7 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? No 86¢ 86¢ $81 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? No 91¢ 100¢ $63 $69 +$6 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 27? No 93¢ 100¢ $46 $50 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 27? No 95¢ 100¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 27? No 89¢ 100¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 28? No 78¢ 80¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? Jun 27 $36 −$9 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 27 $38 +$8 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 26? Jun 27 $37 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 26? Jun 27 $29 +$8 +29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C on June 26? Jun 26 $32 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $36 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 26? Jun 26 $28 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $70 −$10 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$3 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 25? Jun 26 $73 +$10 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $254 −$25 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? Jun 25 $76 +$24 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $60 +$25 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $44 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 23? Jun 24 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 23? Jun 24 $78 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $65 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $69 −$6 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $147 −$41 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $118 −$26 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $59 +$10 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 23? Jun 23 $35 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 22? Jun 23 $126 −$18 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $131 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $82 +$9 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 22 $35 −$5 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $94 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $204 −$144 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $187 −$135 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $93 −$37 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? Jun 22 $116 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $22 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $181 +$13 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $97 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $26 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $18 +$6 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $44 +$8 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $61 −$6 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 20? Jun 21 $114 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $143 −$60 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $102 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $95 +$31 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $234 +$15 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 29? BUY No 91¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 78¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 86¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? SELL No 69¢ $27 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 13¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 14¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 93¢ $47 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 92¢ $59 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 54¢ $14 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 53¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 91¢ $41 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $22 23h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $90 23h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 80¢ $13 25h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 78¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $29 27h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $48 27h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $36 27h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 77¢ $12 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 77¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 30¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 55¢ $6 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? SELL No 42¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 28h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $37 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $597.05 · official $597.05 (match) · 266 history records