Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
28 0x2838…a2c7 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$75 (+7%) realized +$164 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%8W / 19L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$40
other 39% −$74
world 10% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +46.5% +32.6% 30% 30% +21.3%
≤30d 27 +46.5% +32.6% 30% 30% +21.3%
≤90d 27 +46.5% +32.6% 30% 30% +21.3%
all 27 +46.5% +32.6% 30% 30% +21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.6% 30% +21.3%
10% +19.9% 26% +9.7%
15% +8.3% 22% -0.9%
20% -2.3% 22% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +78% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×15.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.42 per $1 lost it wins $6.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$164
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)27 / 33
History coverage3d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 58¢ $289 $201 −$88 (-30%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 +$5 +510%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$32 +32%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $80 +$9 +11%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1 +$12 +1130%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$4 +343%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $101 +$52 +52%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +388%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $291 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 66¢ $95 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 77¢ $37 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 9h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 67¢ $71 9h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 10h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 76¢ $101 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 65¢ $101 11h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $80 26h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 75¢ $101 30h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 45h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 45h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 47h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.97 · official $343.11 · 56 history records