Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x283d…5c27 politics 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$398per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$5
politics 31% −$4
sports 18% −$2
world 9% −$1
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$956) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage81d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close Jun 18 $1,226 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? May 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $61 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 16 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 16 $959 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 15 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? Apr 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 15 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 14 $939 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 14 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $127 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $128 $0 -0%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $132 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 29 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 0m
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 7m
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 14m
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 38m
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close SELL No 100¢ $1,225 45m
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 51m
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 58m
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close BUY No 100¢ $1,215 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,151 1h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,153 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $79 36d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 36d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $14 36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $11 36d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $14 36d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $10 36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $21 36d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 62d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $949 62d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $16 62d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $907 62d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 62d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $955 62d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $21 63d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $942 63d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $13 63d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $709 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records