trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -7.0% | -15.9% | 0% | 0% | -15.9% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -7.0% | -15.9% | 0% | 0% | -15.9% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -7.0% | -15.9% | 50% | 0% | -27.4% |
| all | 26 | -3.9% | -13.1% | 50% | 31% | -14.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.1% | 31% | -14.5% |
| 10% | -21.4% | 31% | -22.7% |
| 15% | -29.0% | 27% | -30.2% |
| 20% | -35.9% | 15% | -37.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $547 | $557 | +$10 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? | Jun 28 | $0 | $0 | -7% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Apr 06 | $868 | −$282 | -32% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Mar 31 | $221 | +$13 | +6% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Mar 31 | $209 | +$12 | +6% |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Mar 27 | $154 | −$84 | -54% |
| Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 | Mar 22 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 3? | Mar 22 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? | Mar 22 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026? | Mar 22 | $656 | +$44 | +7% |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? | Mar 08 | $56 | −$43 | -77% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 06 | $366 | −$21 | -6% |
| Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear | Mar 05 | $0 | $0 | +47% |
| Will Iran strike Iraq in March? | Mar 05 | $12 | −$11 | -96% |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | Mar 05 | $87 | +$47 | +54% |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | Mar 05 | $131 | +$69 | +53% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 04 | $100 | +$36 | +36% |
| Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March? | Mar 03 | $22 | +$7 | +31% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Mar 03 | $144 | +$10 | +7% |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | Mar 03 | $100 | +$47 | +47% |
| Will Iran strike Kuwait in March? | Mar 02 | $3 | +$4 | +124% |
| Will Iran strike Bahrain in March? | Mar 02 | $3 | +$2 | +77% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026? | Mar 02 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 02 | $51 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Jun 20 | $168 | +$11 | +6% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | Jun 19 | $201 | −$33 | -16% |
| US military action against Iran by Friday? | Jun 19 | $228 | −$28 | -12% |