Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:37:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
28 0x2840…7059 crypto 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,094 (+7%) realized +$1,094 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%86W / 72L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days+$117
14 days+$823
30 days+$1,063
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$1,886
other 32% −$637
crypto 27% −$102
world 4% −$244
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -3.1% -12.3% 54% 50% -8.1%
≤30d 54 +6.0% -4.1% 63% 59% -3.0%
≤90d 56 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 57% -3.4%
all 158 -10.5% -19.0% 54% 49% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 49% -4.6%
10% -26.8% 39% -13.7%
15% -33.9% 30% -22.0%
20% -40.3% 23% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$55 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,094
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses86 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage134d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $461 +$94 +20%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $261 −$261 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $219 −$219 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $383 +$67 +17%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $256 +$244 +95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $365 +$135 +37%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $109 −$108 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $256 +$296 +115%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $144 −$21 -15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $140 +$317 +226%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $520 −$512 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $187 −$184 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $118 −$116 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $296 −$292 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $431 −$429 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $237 +$163 +69%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $360 +$122 +34%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $334 +$260 +78%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $183 +$117 +64%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $465 +$34 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $266 +$229 +86%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $214 +$182 +85%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $681 +$255 +37%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $207 −$78 -38%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $125 +$44 +35%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $577 +$123 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $222 −$220 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $140 −$50 -36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $140 +$155 +111%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $191 +$109 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $78 +$42 +54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $133 +$217 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $301 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $204 +$42 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,214 +$207 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $407 +$71 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $609 −$146 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $205 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $76 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $334 +$198 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $236 −$230 -97%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 10 $513 −$181 -35%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $172 −$172 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $554 1h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $405 2h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $10 2h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $10 2h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $32 2h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $4 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $14 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $210 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $159 21h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $219 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $47 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $39 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 24h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $217 26h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 26h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 26h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 26h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $140 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $48 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 54¢ $49 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 836 history records