Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
28 0x2843…b3d2 world 411 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,636 (-4%) realized −$2,415 · open −$221
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%205W / 155L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$5,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$2,376
other 15% +$549
politics 6% $0
finance 5% −$458
tech 3% −$22
sports 3% −$131
crypto 2% +$196
economics 0% −$86
culture 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -3.6% -12.8% 48% 41% -23.6%
≤30d 148 +10.0% -0.5% 60% 53% -10.1%
≤90d 360 +7.2% -3.0% 57% 49% -5.0%
all 360 +7.2% -3.0% 57% 49% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 49% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 39% -14.1%
15% -20.8% 28% -22.4%
20% -28.5% 20% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$68 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$5,207
Realized−$2,415
Unrealized−$221
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses205 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions56
Markets (closed)360 / 411
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$147
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 55¢ 100¢ $330 $599 +$270 (+82%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 60¢ 51¢ $301 $253 −$48 (-16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 75¢ 47¢ $371 $231 −$139 (-38%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 60¢ 64¢ $196 $210 +$14 (+7%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 14¢ 94¢ $31 $208 +$178 (+573%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 100¢ $166 $200 +$34 (+20%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 70¢ 44¢ $280 $177 −$103 (-37%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 87¢ $132 $174 +$42 (+32%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 86¢ $138 $173 +$35 (+25%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 62¢ 68¢ $148 $162 +$14 (+10%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 71¢ 50¢ $214 $151 −$63 (-29%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $148 $150 +$2 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 64¢ 99¢ $96 $148 +$52 (+54%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $118 $138 +$21 (+18%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 59¢ 96¢ $83 $135 +$52 (+62%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 44¢ 26¢ $213 $129 −$84 (-39%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Yes 82¢ 57¢ $172 $121 −$51 (-30%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 60¢ 52¢ $127 $109 −$18 (-14%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 74¢ 55¢ $148 $109 −$39 (-26%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $92 $100 +$8 (+9%)
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? No 70¢ 94¢ $70 $94 +$24 (+34%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? No 42¢ 85¢ $42 $85 +$44 (+105%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 96¢ $69 $77 +$8 (+12%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $85 $75 −$9 (-11%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 65¢ 72¢ $65 $72 +$8 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 19 $227 −$199 -87%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $43 −$23 -54%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 19 $20 −$18 -90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $261 +$49 +19%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $700 +$34 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $750 +$276 +37%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $73 +$7 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $54 +$15 +28%
Will Senegal be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 17 $28 $0 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $162 +$38 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $2,464 −$536 -22%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 15 $124 −$88 -71%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $228 −$42 -18%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 15 $64 −$28 -44%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $69 −$38 -55%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $196 +$118 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $42 +$158 +376%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $24 +$6 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $22 +$8 +37%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Jun 14 $145 −$5 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $172 +$28 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $67 −$62 -93%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $354 −$262 -74%
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $25 −$22 -88%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $160 −$22 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $156 −$150 -96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $219 −$99 -45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $258 −$233 -90%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $1,020 −$127 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $164 −$130 -79%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $302 −$246 -82%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $170 −$154 -91%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $636 −$396 -62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $63 +$37 +58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $5 +$10 +212%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $9 +$7 +74%
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $13 +$8 +61%
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $41 +$19 +46%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $129 +$31 +24%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $81 +$203 +252%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $87 +$24 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $25 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 7¢ $29 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 65¢ $32 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 1h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 82¢ $41 1h
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $20 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $30 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $1 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 21¢ $43 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $39 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $122 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 9h
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 33¢ $69 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 82¢ $174 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $29 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 10h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 12h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 39¢ $59 12h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 12h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 12h
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $48 20h
US bank failure by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 22h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,207.36 · official $5,208.81 (match) · 3500 history records